The newest player, draft pick no less, I’m most excited to watch is Charles Jenkins.  He just looks like a basketball player.   That’s about as lame a reason to like someone but when you’re a die hard Warriors fan as I am, I’ll reach for the stars and be happy with mediocrity, until given more to feed from.  Jenkins has a really solid build and from the tape I’ve watched of him playing, can shoot very well.  The days of the “freak” show Jeremy Lin very well may be numbered.   In addition, Jenkins is the two time MVP of the “who gives an eff” league, which is saying something….well, it certainly says SOMETHING to be MVP of a collegiate bball league.

Obviously the coach could provide a new attitude and spark, although I was a fan of Keith Smart.  Mark Jackson was a good NBA player and could translate to a good coach.  After all, an NBA point gaurd, which is what he was, is basically a floor general.  If Jackson can transition from physical performer to communications guru, I believe the Warriors talent will be enough to squeeze into that ever elusive 8th seed in the West.  If not, the Warriors will be mired again with the 11th or 9th overall pick watching the ping pong balls bounce in favor of another team.  Can’t wait to find out!

In the NFL, I really like New England as a 3 point favorite.  Philidelphia is in a meltdown mode and although they won last week, I have a hard time seeing their porous defense holding up against a good New England attack.

College: Cal +6

NFL: New England -3

Now recall how the majority of “scouts” and fans feel about Andrew Luck and relate that to Harbaugh and his flaunting of each QB he’s ever coached.  I think it’s safe to come to the conclusion that we the public may be buying a bit more into Jim Harbaugh’s opinion than formulating our own.  In the last two weeks I’ve seen Luck throw some very poor passes, two pick six’s.  In addition a number of his throws are, while indeed they may have been completed, they are NOT of good accuracy.

I understand most “scouts” and fans don’t share my opinion, but I’d beg them to take a look at how their opinion has been skewed by the hype of which Harbaugh has created.  After all, Jim Harbaugh is a great coach, but he’s also a GREAT advocate for his players….Toby Gerhart anyone?

Cal has a very good defense and I will be very interested to see how Luck performs against the Pac 12′s best defense.  As you can see in my picks, I think Cal will cover.

Picks: Cal +20

Niners -9.5

For some reason I keep seeing Arizona as a team to either bet against or bet for, I’m betting against them this week at Colorado.  Colorado got whipped by USC, but that’s USC and Arizona has nowhere near the talent of USC.  In addition Colorado will be seeing the improvement of their team as senior RB Rodney Stewart returns to form.

In the NFL I really like the Colts to get their first win against a team who has a pretty crappy QB in Jacksonville.  Give me the straight up win!

Picks:

College: Colorado +10.5 at home vs Arizona

NFL: Indianapolis +3 at home vs Jacksonville

“END OF AN ERROR,” it read, acknowledging that the Niners would not be bringing back the player they inexplicably chose instead of Aaron Rodgers.  According to then GM Scott McCloughan, a $9 million base salary was just too much money to pay a backup quarterback.

Cringing everytime we saw Rodgers throw another touchdown pass on his way to 4038 yards and 28 touchdowns that season, Niner fans nevertheless breathed a sigh of relief, knowing we could finally wipe the slate clean and move forward.

Not so fast. Smith restructured his contract in 2009, taking a massive pay cut for the chance to compete. With Singletary calling the shots, the Niners were embracing a run-dominant offensive strategy, a strategy that apparently didn’t need a drastic improvement at the quarterback position to execute. Alex Smith was not going to be our franchise quarterback, but an intelligent game manager? Perhaps.

Unfortunately for Singletary and company, it wasn’t hard for opposing defenses to stop an offense that ran the ball up the middle on every fucking down and the Niners stumbled into a 14-18 record over the next two years. So Singletary gets canned, Alex Smith becomes an unrestricted free agent, the Niners win the Jim Harbaugh sweepstakes and optimism somehow begins to flicker again in the hearts of Niner fans.

But then a curious thing happened during the NFL lockout’s brief recess in May.

Jim Harbaugh, former illustrious NFL quarterback, savior of two collegiate programs in decline, mentor and developer to the best quarterback prospect in decades, stepped into the role of NFL head coach for the first time and the first thing he did is hand over his unwavering trust – and playbook – to an unrestricted free agent, a player whose average quarterback rating in five seasons as a 49er was 67.

While the media and Niner fans alike erupted with shock and dismay, Alex Smith quietly went about his business, studying, learning, absorbing and working. He led a players-only camp – “Camp Alex” – during the lockout, where he acted as head coach and quarterback, teaching the playbook to his teammates, taking snaps and leading the team.

Still, and understandably so, the doubt persisted and many wondered if Jim Harbaugh really knew what he was doing. “If Jim Harbaugh can make a quarterback out of Alex Smith, then he will go down in history as one of the best coaches ever,” was a repeated refrain on local sports radio. But the popular sentiment was that Alex Smith was not fixable and that the Niners were destined for another season of mediocrity, with rookie Kaepernick inevitably thrown into the fire too early to relieve a beleaguered quarterback that was bound to fail.

Flash forward to the halfway point of the NFL season and guess what?

With Alex Smith as their starting quarterback, the 49ers are 7-1. They have a five game lead in the NFC west and are routinely ranked as one of the top two teams in the NFL. Sure, their defense has been dominant and Frank Gore continues to be Frank Gore, but Alex Smith has become much more than just a game manager.

After eight games as the starter, he is in the top 6 in the NFL with a passer rating of 97.2. He is not making mistakes (10 TD passes and only 2 picks). He is making clutch plays that win games (winning touchdown pass on 4th down @ DET; 201 yards and 2 TD passes in the second half to erase a 23-3 deficit and beat PHI on the road). He is routinely zipping the ball into tight coverage, hitting his man in stride. While scrambling on third down two weeks ago against the Browns, he dove head first into defenders to get the first down. He is playing within himself, within the system, calm and under control. He is winning games.

And while Smith certainly deserves credit for his unexpected turnaround, he would not have had this opportunity if it were not for the ballsy vision of Jim Harbaugh. This fierce competitor with an impeccable pedigree and proven success grooming successful quarterbacks went against the grain and handed his offense to a player whose name had become synonymous with failure. He gave him a creative and well-balanced offensive game plan that makes the most of his abilities. But above all else, he gave him his unwavering confidence at at a time when everyone else wanted to give him the boot.

Eight games into the season, it appears as though the only error would have been to give up on him.

Yet, in my opinion, between Kyle Boehm and Zack Kline I have to imagine one of those guys will become a good Pac 12 QB.  I’ve seen both of them, at least on tape, and both possess good arm strength and mobility.  It’s been a while since both of those attributes have been encompassed by a Cal QB. Again I must harking back to the days of Aaron Rodgers to remember a QB who had both of those qualities to a great extent.  From what I’ve seen of Kline and Boehm, both of them have those qualities in abundance.

Ah, but that is years from now and in the mean time I must be content watching the Bears build upon their strong defense, which seemingly produces first rounders every year.  This year is no exceptions as in my opinion, if you see my mock draft, I have Mycal Kendricks going in the first round.  He may not go there, but I’m confident he will be a productive NFL LB.

I’ll leave with this, the Bear doesn’t die…but perhaps the Bear is in hibernation for a while.  I think we’ll see the Bear wake up today, as the Cal defense should be strong enough and angry enough to subdue the team of Wazzu.

Without further adieu:

1) Miami- Andrew Luck: Suck for Luck says it all.  You can’t pass on him even if for some weird reason you don’t think he’s the best available option. In Miami’s case, their QB play has been very poor for quite some time. It’d be fun to see that team turn around quickly and adding Luck would do that within 2 years.

2) Indianapolis- Robert Griffin III: Hey, I’m in, Suck for Griffin.  He is the fastest QB in college since Michael Vick and is more accurate with better arm strength than any other QB in college not named Luck.  The Colts theoretically can sit him if, they hope, Peyton Manning comes back next season and restores the Colts to what they’re capable of.

3)St Louis- Justin Blackmon: The Rams are in desperate need of finding a go to WR and nothing makes more sense than taking an NFL ready WR who is a potential star in Blackmon.  I really liked Sam Bradford’s accuracy and arm strength coming out of college, but this season has been rough on the second year player.  I’ll be surprised if St. Louis doesn’t take Blackmon as this is about as no brainer as it gets.

4) Minnesota-Vontaze Burfict: Burfict might be the best ILB I’ve seen in the last ten years.  He’s an absolute beast and has consistently stuffed 3rd and short running plays.  He’s got ideal size and is quite fast enough for the position.  Minnesota could go a few directions here, but they could just stack chips on what is already there best side of the ball with a player who, if he keeps his head on straight, will be a menace for the next decade.

5) Arizona- Matt Kalil: Arizona could go in a few directions here, their defense is pathetic to say the least, but I believe Kalil is an elite LT.  To speak of his athleticism, he’s blocked a few kicks in his career too. Not a shabby skill to have at the next level in addition to being a great LT.

6) Jacksonville-Jonathan Martin: Jacksonville needs to secure it’s new investment, Gabbert, what better way to do that than infuse the offensive line with better talent.  I could also see them grabbing Alshon Jeffrey here, but I’m a believer in ‘meat and potatoes’ before the candy and I’m not the biggest fan of any of the available WRs at this spot.

7)Denver-Trent Richardson: While Knowshon Moreno has shown flahses he hasn’t had the consistency of a first round pick.  Richardson from day one will have the rock in his hands.  He reminds me of Adrian Peterson, brute force with speed.  Not much of a shifty player, he will wear down defenses with brutality.  Denver still needs to upgrade it’s WR core but I believe you need star players and Richardson is a star.

Cleveland-Mante Teo: I’m still not sold on Colt McCoy as the long term answer at QB, but I for one am not in love with Landry Jones or Matt Barkley as others might be.  The Browns defense needs to improve and Teo is a big instinctive, at times over aggressive ILB who will play from day one.

9)Seattle-Landry Jones: Ya, I know, I just said I’m not in love with Landry Jones.  Well, if I’m not in love with Landry Jones, then I’m hating the QB situation of the Seahawks.  I realize that Pete Carroll coached Matt Barkley.  I’m less of a fan of Barkley than I am of Jones and Carroll has been known to dis his former players come draft time (Taylor Mays).  Jones has ideal size and decent arm strength to go with good legs.  I can see him developing into a serviceable starter and God knows Seattle is in need of a QB who is just average.

10) Washington-Quinton Coples: Coples has the ideal frame, just not the ideal production to go with that frame.  At this point however, the Redskins need talent and as much as I was tempted to slot them with Matt Barkley, I knew better.  The Redskins need better and I can’t say that Barkley is much better than John Beck.  They could also go in a number of different directions here but they need more good players at this point and I believe Coples, despite his lack of elite production, is a talented player.

11) Tennessee-Riley Rieff: Tennessee will eventually be transitioning QBs, and even while Matt Hassellbeck is the QB I’m sure he’d like to have better lineman.  Locker will eventually get his shot and while he’s waiting, getting a cornerstone LT for the next 10 years is certainly not a bad idea.

12) Carolina-Alshon Jeffery: Gotta give Cam Newton a new long term target and Jeffery just may be that long term fit.  Big and decent hands, he can be the go to target to go opposite side of Steve Smith.  Having put in this selection, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention how much I think Carolina’s defense needs improvement.  But if they can put up 30 points a game,  they’ll win many games next year.

13) Kansas City-Dre Kirkpatrick: Kansas City has a lot of pieces to make a good team already and since they’ve seemingly committed to Cassell at QB, they’ve got to add talent.  Kirkpatrick is a talented CB who can hit hard and cover well.  Every defense in the NFL can use more talented CBs and while Kansas City’s secondary didn’t start off well, they’ve improved throughout the season.  Adding Kirkpatrick would only add to the talent pool, which next season will have star safety Eric Berry back.

14)Dallas-Matt Barkley: Time has to be coming to an end for Tony Romo.  I keep hearing people make excuses for him but when is Jerry Jones going to say enough is enough.  Barkley reminds me a lot of Troy Aikmen, and while I’m not the biggest fan in the world of his play, I admit he is a good long term solution for the cowboys and with the proper coaching can be a decent starting QB in the NFL.

15)Cleveland-Michael Floyd: Cleveland is in dire need of more playmaking WR. While I am a fan of Greg Little, he is just one guy and Massiquoi hasn’t really lived up to expectations.  Floyd, while he has issues, can become a good possession WR to complement Little.

16)Tampa Bay-Morris Claiborne: Tampa could use some more offensive weapons and I could see them trading down here as there isn’t a player that jumps out offensively.  So I thought giving them a good CB never hurts and will allow them to continue to build on that talented defense.

17)Cincinnati-Brandon Thompson: To follow up the great offensive draft that they had last year it’s time to infuse the defense.  From the Oakland (Palmer) trade and create a title contender.  Thompson has great power and speed and would fit in anywhere.

18)San Diego-David DeCastro: Should they draft a new QB? Well, things aren’t that crazy in sunny San Diego…are they? In any event helping out the offensive line could only improve both the running and passing game.  I’ve seen DeCastro in a few games this year and the guy punishes DTs and will infuse a running attack the second he joins a team.

19)Chicago-Luke Kuechly: Chicago’s LBs are beginning to age and as much as I like them I think a smart move would be looking to getting a new young tackling machine to initially aid the current LBs and eventually make a smooth transition as THE starting OLB for the Bears.

20)Cincinnati-Janoris Jenkins: Cincinnati should continue to bolster their defense and if a talented CB like Jenkins should fall to them, they shouldn’t hesitate.  If they draft like I’ve slotted them, both the offense and defense will start to look really strong, they are in a nice position.  It’ll be hard to screw this draft up for them.

21)New York (Jets)-Courtney Upshaw: I feel as though the Jets could use some more offensive line help especially after seeing Mark Sanchez has .3 seconds to throw against Baltimore.  But I’ve seen Upshaw play and I really like he’s outside rushing ability.  Even the fat coach can see this guy’s talent.

22)Houston-Ronnell Lewis: Houston could use another speed LB to go along side Brian Cushing and Lewis could be that guy.  Speed and power are his game and Houston is in desperate need of talent on the defensive side of the ball, especially in the pass rushing department.

23)New York (Giants):Alfonzo Dennard- If there is one team that is in need of more secondary help, it’s the ‘G’ men.  I know they spent a first round pick on a CB last year, but still, that secondary has been downright brutal and needs more talent.  Eli will have them scoring points, they must defend better to win games.

24)Detroit-Mycal Kendricks- Perhaps the least talked about of the LBs in the nation, Kendricks has size and speed to play any LB position at the next level.  A very heady player, he routinely gets stops behind the line.   Detroit, while improved at the LB position, could use a playmaker of Kendricks’ ability.

25)Baltimore-Jarvis Jones: Baltimore is almost there, almost at the point of winning a superbowl.  They have a lot of good players in nearly every spot.   I’m giving them a LB here for the future as Ray Lewis isn’t going to last forever.

26) New England-Devon Still: It’s clear the Pats defense needs improvement and with the top flight CBs of this draft already off the board, they should try to address getting more pressure against opposing QBs.  Still is having a good year and can play in any defensive scheme.

27) Philadelphia-Peter Konz: Konz plays center and could play guard positions as well.  Philadelphia seems fairly stacked in terms of defensive talent and with Vick and McCoy, they can always use more blocking big men to open up the lanes.

28)Buffalo-Mark Barron: Buffalo seems to be doing well in terms of offense, with the cementing of Fitzpatrick at QB and Fred Jackson appearing to be a low mileage RB for his advance (RB) age.  Their defensive secondary could really use some help and Barron, while not necessarily known for his coverage skills, is a good safety.

29)San Francisco-Cordy Glenn: Ever since the niners passed on Desean Jackson and drafted Chilo Richal in the second round a few years ago, they’ve been mired with bad guard play.  Glenn could provide instant help for a team tired of waiting for Richal to develop…which at this point probably isn’t going to happen.

30)New England-Mike Adams: When Tom Brady is under pressure, he isn’t nearly as effective.  Ya, I know that statement is a bit obvious, but considering his lack of speed, it’s a more pressing issue especially at this point in his career.  New England always has the best passing lineman and that’s because they routinely invest through the draft.

31)Pittsburgh-Nick Toon: Hines Ward certainly is beginning to show his age and it’s about time that Pittsburgh attempts to replace him with a high quality possession WR.  Toon could provide that and alleviate the transition.

32)Green Bay-Kendall Reyes: Green Bay could use another big body to play DE and Reyes certainly has the size to complement their defense.  With the ability of the LBs to put pressure on the QB, Reyes would provide an adequate to good defense against the run.

1) Calvin Johnson: Well, duh.  He’s the best WR in the NFL by a mile.  Physical, fast and huge with the ability to go over the middle or turn a small gain into a big one.

2) Larry Fitzgerald: Remember when Kurt Warner was the QB for the Cardinals? Remember how good Larry was then…well things have changed, but only a tad, despite poor QB play he’s still had a productive year.

3) Andre Johnson: Very similar to the previous two I just mentioned, but injuries have taken it’s toll on him this season.  If he’s hamstring was good he very well may be at the top of this list.

4) Wes Welker: Cannot ignore the stats this guy is putting up despite being somewhat of a “system” player and having Tom Brady throw him the ball.

5) Dwayne Bowe: I’ve watched the Chiefs play a few times and every time I do this guy is making a great catch.  Like the other WRs on this list he is versatile, go over the middle, take a deep pass or hang on for a sideline catch. Love his hands.

Missed cut: Mike Wallace (too one dimensional), D-Jackson (just hasn’t had a great season so far), Vincent Jackson (having a down year), Jeremy Maclin (good year but not good enough to make the top 5)

Pick: Arizona -4 at home against Utah

As for the NFL, I like taking a hot team…so I’m going to take one “hot” team against another “hot” team.  The difference is 3.5 points.  Give me 3.5, meaning I’ll win if the other team wins by a field goal? I’ll take it!

Pick: Baltimore +3.5 away at Pittsburgh